National Grid launches new future energy scenarios publication

22/11/2011

 

  • First of a new annual publication on energy supply and demand up to 2050
  • Brings together the electricity and gas aspects of National Grid's scenarios in a single document for the first time
  • The first step in an annual process of engagement and consultation on industry views on the future of energy

National Grid has published a new document presenting its energy supply and demand scenarios up to 2050.

For the first time, the document ‘UK Future Energy Scenarios’ brings together gas and electricity data to provide a picture of how energy supply and demand may look under different conditions.

The ‘Gone Green’, ‘Slow Progression’ and ‘Accelerated Growth’ scenarios (described below in ‘Notes to editors’) will be revised every year using feedback from the industry.

.National Grid Future Transmission Networks Manager, Richard Smith said:

"This represents a new stage in our annual consultation process.

"The new publication shows how emissions targets could be met – or not met – under three different scenarios driven by the economy and the demand for heat, transport and electricity.

"Feedback from the industry will be very important to us, and the views gathered will be used to update the scenarios to be presented in future editions."

Previously, the information used in ‘UK Future Energy Scenarios’ was contained separately in the Ten Year Statement (TYS) for gas and the Offshore Development Information Statement (ODIS) for electricity.

The TYS and ODIS documents can now concentrate on the implications of the scenarios for the development of the gas and electricity networks.

This new publication combines the TYS and ODIS information and provides a detailed description of scenarios and their underlying assumptions.

View the report click here ‘UK Future Energy Scenarios’

Contacts for media information only:
Graham McQuarrie: 01926 655273
Gemma Stokes: 07974 198333
Isobel Rowley: 01926 655275 or 07917 211116.

 

Notes to Editors:

Webinar

Richard Smith will be hosting a briefing on the new ‘UK Future Energy Scenarios’ publication on the morning of Wednesday 23 November.  The briefing will be available as a live webinar. For details on how to dial in and log on to the webinar, contact one of the press office contacts above.

National Grid

National Grid (LSE: NG; NYSE:NGG) is an electricity and gas company that connects consumers to energy sources through its networks.  The company is at the heart of one of the greatest challenges facing our society - to create new, sustainable energy solutions for the future and developing an energy system that underpins economic prosperity in the 21st century.  National Grid holds a vital position at the centre of the energy system and we ‘join everything up’. 

In Britain, we run the gas and electricity systems that our society is built on, delivering gas and electricity across the country.  In the North Eastern US, we connect more than seven million gas and electric customers to vital energy sources, essential for our modern lifestyles.

National Grid in the UK:

• We own the high-voltage electricity transmission network in England and Wales, operating it across Great Britain

  • We own and operate the high pressure gas transmission system in Britain
  • Our gas distribution business delivers gas to 11 million homes and businesses
  • We also own a number of related businesses including LNG importation, land remediation and metering
  • National Grid manages the National Gas Emergency Service free phone line on behalf of the industry - 0800 111 999 (all calls are   recorded and may be monitored).

www.nationalgrid.com

Scenarios

The UK has legislation in place setting limits on the emissions of greenhouse gases as far ahead as 2050.  There is also legislation mandating a minimum level of renewable energy in 2020.  A single forecast of energy demand does not give a sufficiently rich picture of possible future developments so National Grid now carries out analysis based on three different scenarios.

  • In the Slow Progression scenario developments in renewable and low carbon energy are comparatively slow, and emissions and renewable targets for 2020 are not met until after 2025. 
  • In the Gone Green scenario the renewable target for 2020 and the emissions targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050 are all reached. 
  • The Accelerated Growth scenario uses the same view of energy demand as Gone Green but has faster development of offshore generation.  All environmental targets are reached, earlier than the required dates.

The assumptions behind the scenarios are described in some detail out to 2030 in this document, including:

  • The economic background
  • Fuel prices
  • Developments in the heating market, with particular emphasis on heat pumps
  • Developments in transport, with particular emphasis on electric vehicles
  • Electricity demand, with discussion of high efficiency technologies, especially lighting, and the application of smart technology for demand side management.