Risk factors

Our risk management process has identified the following risk factors which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and reputation, as well as the value and liquidity of our securities. Not all of these factors are within our control. In addition, other factors besides those listed below may have an adverse effect on the Group. Any investment decision regarding our securities and any forward-looking statements made by us should be considered in the light of these risk factors and the cautionary statement.

Changes in law or regulation in the geographies in which we operate could have an adverse effect on our results of operations.

Many of our businesses are utilities or networks that are subject to regulation by governments and other authorities. Consequently, changes in law or regulation in the countries or states in which we operate could adversely affect the Group. Regulatory decisions concerning, for example, whether licences or approvals to operate are renewed, whether market developments have been satisfactorily implemented and whether there has been any breach of the terms of a licence or approval, the level of permitted revenues for our businesses and proposed business development activities could have an adverse impact on our results of operations, cash flows, the financial condition of our businesses and the ability to develop those businesses in the future. For further information, see the Operating and Financial Review and, in particular, the ‘External and regulatory environment’ sections for each of the Group’s business segments.

Breaches of or changes in environmental or health and safety laws or regulations could expose us to claims for financial compensation and adverse regulatory consequences, as well as damaging our reputation.

Aspects of our activities are potentially dangerous, such as the operation and maintenance of electricity lines and the transmission and distribution of natural gas. Electricity and gas utilities also typically use and generate in their operations hazardous and potentially hazardous products and by-products. In addition, there may be other aspects of our operations which are not currently regarded or proved to have adverse effects but could become so; for example, the effects of electric and magnetic fields. We are subject to laws and regulations relating to pollution, the protection of the environment, and how we use and dispose of hazardous substances and waste materials. We are also subject to laws and regulations governing health and safety matters protecting the public and our employees. Any breach of these obligations, or even incidents that do not amount to a breach, could adversely affect our results of operations and our reputation. For further information about environmental and health and safety matters relating to our businesses, see the ‘Operating Responsibly’ section of our website at www.nationalgrid.com.

Network failure or the inability to carry out critical non-network operations may have significant adverse impacts on both our financial position and our reputation.

We may suffer a major network failure or may not be able to carry out critical non-network operations. Operational performance could be adversely affected by a failure to maintain the health of the system or network, inadequate forecasting of demand or inadequate record keeping. This could cause us to fail to meet agreed standards of service or be in breach of a licence or approval, and even incidents that do not amount to a breach could result in adverse regulatory and financial consequences, as well as harming our reputation. In addition to these risks, we may be affected by other potential events that are largely outside of our control such as the impact of weather or unlawful acts of third parties. Weather conditions can affect financial performance, particularly in the US, and severe weather that causes outages or damages infrastructure will adversely affect operational and potentially business performance. Terrorist attack, sabotage or other intentional acts may also physically damage our businesses or otherwise significantly affect corporate activities and as a consequence adversely impact the results of operations.

Our results of operations depend on a number of factors relating to business performance including performance against regulatory targets and the delivery of anticipated cost and efficiency savings.

Earnings maintenance and growth from our regulated gas and electricity businesses will be affected by our ability to meet or better efficiency targets set by Ofgem and other regulators. From time to time, we also publish cost and efficiency savings targets for our businesses in the UK and the US. To meet these targets, we must continue to improve operational performance. In the US, under our state rate plans, earnings from our regulated businesses will be affected by our ability to deliver integration and efficiency savings. Earnings from our regulated businesses in both the UK and the US also depend on meeting service quality standards set by regulators. To meet these standards, we must improve service reliability and customer service. If we do not meet these targets and standards, both our results of operations and our reputation may be harmed.

Changes to the regulatory treatment of commodity costs may have an adverse effect on the results of operations.

Changes in commodity prices could potentially impact our energy delivery businesses. Current regulatory arrangements in the UK and the US provide the ability to pass through virtually all of the increased costs related to commodity prices to consumers. However, if regulators in the UK or the US were to restrict this ability, it could have an adverse effect on our operating results.

Our reputation may be harmed if consumers of energy suffer a disruption to their supply even if this disruption is outside our control.

Our energy delivery businesses are responsible for transporting available electricity and gas. We consult with and provide information to regulators, governments and industry participants about future demand and the availability of supply. However, where there is insufficient supply our role is to manage the relevant system safely, which in extreme circumstances may require us to disconnect consumers.

Business development activity, including acquisitions and disposals, may be based on incorrect assumptions or conclusions; significant liabilities may be overlooked or there may be other unanticipated or unintended effects.

In February 2006, we announced the acquisitions of KeySpan Corporation and the Rhode Island gas distribution business of Southern Union Company. These transactions are subject to a number of conditions precedent, in particular, approvals from relevant regulators and, in the case of the acquisition of KeySpan, the approval of both its and our shareholders. These approvals may not be received or they may be granted but on terms that are different than anticipated. We have also announced that we expect to achieve certain levels of synergy and efficiency savings from these transactions, but these may not subsequently be achievable. For further details concerning these transactions, see the ‘Acquisitions and disposals’ section of the Operating and Financial Review.

Fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates and commodity price indices, in particular, in the US dollar could have a significant impact on our results of operations because we have substantial business interests in the US and because of the significant proportion of our borrowings, derivative financial instruments and commodity contracts that may potentially be affected by such fluctuations.

We currently have significant operations in the US and the proportion of our activities located there will substantially increase following the completion of the acquisition of KeySpan and the Rhode Island gas distribution business of Southern Union Company. These businesses are subject to the risks normally associated with foreign operations, including the need to translate US assets and liabilities, and income and expenses, into sterling, our primary reporting currency. Our results of operations may be similarly impacted because a significant proportion of our borrowings, derivative financial instruments and commodity contracts are affected by changes in exchange rates, interest rates and commodity price indices, in particular, the US dollar to sterling exchange rate. For further information about this, see the ‘Financial position and financial management’ section of the Operating and Financial Review.

The nature and extent of our borrowings means that an increase in interest rates could have an adverse impact on our financial position and business results.

A significant proportion of our borrowings are subject to variable interest rates which may fluctuate with changes to prevailing interest rates. Increases in these interest rates could therefore increase our costs and diminish our profits. For further information about this, see the ‘Financial position and financial management’ section of the Operating and Financial Review.

Our financial position may be adversely affected by a number of factors including restrictions in borrowing and debt arrangements, changes to credit ratings and effective tax rates.

We are subject to certain covenants and restrictions in relation to our listed debt securities and our bank lending facilities. We are also subject to restrictions on financing which have been imposed by regulators. These restrictions may hinder us in servicing the financial requirements of our current businesses or the financing of newly acquired or developing businesses. Our debt is rated by credit rating agencies and changes to these ratings may affect both our borrowing capacity and the cost of those borrowings. The effective rate of tax we pay may be influenced by a number of factors including changes in law and accounting standards, the proportion of our business operations which are located in the US and our overall approach to tax planning, the results of which could increase that rate.

Future funding requirements of our pension schemes could adversely affect our results of operations.

We participate in a number of pension schemes which together cover substantially all of our employees. In both the UK and the US, the principal schemes are defined benefit schemes where the scheme assets are held independently of Group finances. Estimates of the amount and timing of future funding for these schemes are based on various actuarial assumptions and other factors including, among other things, the actual and projected market performance of the scheme assets, future long-term bond yields, average life expectancies and relevant legal requirements. The impact of these assumptions and other factors may require us to make additional contributions to these pension schemes which, to the extent they are not recoverable under our price controls or state rate plans, could adversely affect our results of operations.

New or revised accounting standards, rules and interpretations by the UK, US or international accounting standard setting boards and other relevant bodies could have an adverse effect on the Group’s reported financial results.

With the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), as adopted by the European Union, changes in the accounting treatment of replacement expenditure, regulatory assets, pension and post-retirement benefits, derivative financial instruments and commodity contracts have significantly affected the way we report our financial position and results of operations. New standards, rules or interpretations may be issued which could also have significant effects. In addition, as a body of practice develops, the application of accounting principles to our particular circumstances may change.